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is meso always a death sentence or are people actually surviving longer now

Family · · 3,535 views
So my dad was diagnosed Stage IV pleural back in March and I'm a nurse practitioner so I obviously went down the research rabbit hole immediately. And yeah, the statistics are grim, I'm not going to sugarcoat that. But I also think there's this thing where people google "mesothelioma prognosis" and see median survival of like 12-21 months depending on the study and they think that's a death sentence in the next year.

It's not that simple though. Those numbers include people diagnosed at every stage, people who can't tolerate treatment, people who didn't get multimodal therapy. My dad's on palliative care now since October but he's doing things. He's here. We're managing his symptoms with decent success honestly because I know what to push for and what not to.

The people I've met through his oncology team at Northwestern who did aggressive treatment early, especially the ones who caught it Stage I or II, some of them are at two, three, four years out. One guy's wife posted in a different support group that he hit five years. That's not nothing.

I guess what I'm saying is yes, meso is serious and yes the median is what it is, but if you're newly diagnosed, there's actual variation in outcomes and a lot of it depends on your stage at diagnosis, your functional status, whether you can tolerate multimodal therapy which usually means surgery plus chemo plus sometimes radiation. It's not automatic.

Don't stop fighting just because the numbers look bad. But also be realistic about what fighting looks like for your specific situation.

9 Replies

Veteran
Got diagnosed June of this year after they found it on a routine VA screening. Stage II, which I didn't know was actually pretty good timing until the docs explained the whole thing. Had my pleurectomy in August at the VA hospital here in Norfolk and honestly the surgery went clean. No complications, which my surgeon said matters a lot for what comes next.

Your dad's right that the median survival numbers don't tell the whole story. Those are averages, and that means half the people are doing better than that. I went aggressive with multimodal treatment because I'm still young enough to handle it and my functional status was solid going in. The chemo after surgery was rough but manageable, especially once we got the nausea under control around week three.

What I've noticed talking to other guys at the VA who've been through this is that catching it early makes a real difference. Not a miracle, but a difference. The ones who waited until Stage III or IV had fewer treatment options and tougher recoveries. Being Stage II meant my surgical team could actually remove the affected tissue without compromising too much.

Your point about multimodal therapy is the key thing. It's not just one thing that saves people, it's the combination. Surgery alone won't do it. Chemo alone won't do it. But together they actually change the equation. My oncologist at the VA was straight with me about all of this in 0900 hours on my first appointment. No sugar coating but also no doom and gloom.

Five years out is not something to dismiss. That's real. Your dad sounds like he's got good support and that matters just as much as the treatment itself.
Family
You're absolutely right about this and I appreciate you laying it out so clearly. The median survival thing haunts people way more than it should, especially when they're freshly diagnosed and terrified.

We had the same conversation with my dad's oncologist back in March when we got the Stage IV diagnosis. I went full clinical mode at first, which honestly wasn't helpful for anyone. Started pulling survival curves, looking at SEER data, all of it. But then our palliative care physician at Northwestern (Dr. Patel, amazing) basically told me that median tells you nothing about your dad's specific trajectory. She said the data skews because it includes people who never made it to treatment, people with massive comorbidities, people who weren't candidates for aggressive intervention.

What actually matters more is performance status and what you can realistically tolerate. My dad was never a surgery candidate because of his cardiac history, but he did four rounds of cisplatin-pemetrexed and had decent response. That bought us time. Not a cure, but time that matters. We're eight months into palliative and he's still doing his thing, still getting his garden ready for spring which is... yeah, that's huge to him.

The people I've talked to who are doing really well years out, they either caught it early or they were fit enough for multimodal and had access to good centers. Stage and age at diagnosis are huge variables that the median doesn't capture. And honestly, symptom management has gotten better even in just the last few years. We're not where we were in 2020 with palliative options.

Don't tell people to be optimistic. But don't let them think it's over before it starts either.
Medical Expert Response
You're framing this exactly right, and as an oncologist I want to back up what you're saying with some specifics because I think people deserve more than just "median survival is X months."

The SEER database data you're referencing captures diagnoses going back years, and treatment has genuinely shifted since the FDA approved pembrolizumab combinations and nivolumab plus ipilimumab (checkpoint inhibitors that work with your immune system rather than just killing cells directly). The CheckMate 743 trial published in Lancet showed median overall survival of 18.1 months with dual immunotherapy versus 14.1 months with standard chemo, but more importantly the two-year survival rate was 41% versus 27%. That tail of the curve, the people who do significantly better than the median, that's real.

And you're right that the median flattens everything. Stage I/II patients who get cytoreductive surgery plus heated chemotherapy directly into the chest cavity (HIPEC or HITHOC depending on the center) are in a completely different statistical neighborhood than Stage IV patients who can't tolerate aggressive treatment. They shouldn't be reading the same prognosis numbers and drawing the same conclusions.

Your dad sounds like he has someone in his corner who knows what to ask for, and that matters more than people realize. Not every family has that.

Talk to your dad's oncologist specifically about where he falls in that variation, because his individual functional status and tumor characteristics matter enormously for what the numbers actually mean for him.
3 found this helpful
Family
Oh wow, thank you for jumping in with the oncology perspective. I was trying to be careful not to overstate things since I'm not an oncologist, just someone who reads a lot and manages my dad's care, so having an actual expert validate that the treatment landscape has shifted is really helpful. The checkpoint inhibitor stuff is what I've been trying to understand better honestly, because my dad's oncologist at Northwestern mentioned nivolumab as a possibility early on but his functional status wasn't ideal for it at that point. Do you see patients responding differently to those combos compared to the older chemo protocols? I'm curious what you're seeing in practice because the trial data is one thing but real outcomes in your clinic are what actually matter.
Medical Expert Response
You're framing this exactly right, and as an oncologist I want to add some clinical texture to what you've described.

The median survival numbers that terrify people come from population-level data that includes everyone, including patients who were diagnosed at 80 with significant comorbidities and never received systemic therapy. When you look at outcomes in patients who completed trimodal therapy (surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation in sequence) at high-volume centers, the picture shifts meaningfully. The Flores et al. data out of Memorial Sloan Kettering showed five-year survival rates around 15-20% in carefully selected surgical candidates. That's not a cure, but it's not what most people picture when they read "12 months."

The immunotherapy data has genuinely changed things in the last few years. CheckMate 743 showed nivolumab plus ipilimumab outperforming chemotherapy alone for overall survival, and we're seeing some patients with durable responses that we simply weren't seeing before 2021. I've had patients in my own clinic who hit three years on immunotherapy combinations when the honest expectation at diagnosis was much shorter.

What you said about functional status is so important and I don't think patients hear it enough. Performance status often matters as much as stage in determining what's possible.

Your dad is lucky to have you in his corner. Knowing what to push for in palliative care, specifically around pleural effusion management and pain control, makes a real difference in quality of life. Talk to his oncologist about what benchmarks you're tracking, and don't hesitate to ask about clinical trials even now.
3 found this helpful
Family
Yeah, thank you for adding that clinical layer. The trimodal outcomes are what I wish more newly diagnosed patients saw first instead of having to dig through five different studies to find them. My dad wasn't a candidate for surgery at Stage IV so we never had that option, but watching his oncologist at Northwestern walk through what the aggressive protocol looks like for earlier stage patients was eye-opening. The difference between "you have mesothelioma" and "here's what we can actually do depending on your specific presentation" is huge for people's mental state right at the worst moment. Have you seen the patient selection piece shift much at your center over the last couple years, or is it still pretty dependent on who gets referred early enough to even be considered for multimodal?
Medical Expert Response
Frank, Stage II at diagnosis from a VA screening is genuinely significant. The KEYNOTE-158 data and the broader immunotherapy literature both show functional status and stage at diagnosis as the two variables that move the needle most on outcomes, and catching it before the disease has crossed into the mediastinum (the chest cavity structures between the lungs) changes what's even on the table surgically.

The pleurectomy you mentioned, assuming that's pleurectomy/decortication rather than EPP, has actually shown comparable survival in some series with less morbidity. The Flores et al. data from Memorial Sloan Kettering looked at this directly and the P/D numbers held up better than a lot of people expected.

So yeah. You're in the cohort that the statistics actually look different for. Talk to your team about what adjuvant therapy looks like post-surgery because that's where a lot of the current trial activity is sitting right now.
3 found this helpful
Family
Oh wow, thank you for jumping in with the actual data. Yeah, you're hitting on exactly what I've been trying to tell people here. The mediastinal involvement piece is huge - I've watched that be the difference between "we can do surgery" and "that's off the table" so many times with my dad's team at Northwestern. And you're right that PD versus EPP changes everything about what you're dealing with post-op in terms of functional outcomes. The extrapleural pneumonectomy recovery is just brutal compared to the pleurectomy/decortication approach, especially if you're already managing other comorbidities.

Frank, if your surgeon is talking PD and you're Stage II with decent performance status, that's legitimately better positioning than most people get. The immunotherapy landscape has shifted so much even in the last couple years.
Patient
I'm Stage II peritoneal, diagnosed just last month, so I'm probably where a lot of people are reading this and feeling that initial panic. What's been helpful for me is actually breaking down those median survival stats the way Dr. Chen described, because I kept seeing 12-21 months and thinking "okay so I have maybe a year" when that's not what the data actually says if you're early stage and can do multimodal treatment.

I've been keeping a detailed symptom journal since my diagnosis in November, and honestly tracking what's actually happening with my body versus what I'm catastrophizing about has made a huge difference in how I approach this. When I had my initial consultation about HIPEC surgery, I came with like 15 pages of notes about my functional status, what I can and can't tolerate, my baseline before symptoms got worse. The surgical team took it seriously because I could show them I'm not just someone declining rapidly, I'm someone who's been documenting everything.

The thing nobody really mentions though is that even knowing you're Stage II and even knowing surgery plus chemotherapy gives you better odds, the decision to actually go through with it is still terrifying. I worked at Johns-Manville back in the late 70s and early 80s so I've had a long time to wonder if this was coming, and now that it's here the logic of "multimodal therapy improves outcomes" doesn't always feel comforting at 3am when you're thinking about what HIPEC actually involves.

But yeah, the variation in outcomes is real. I'm not going into this thinking I'm automatically winning or losing. I'm going in thinking I have options and a timeline to figure out which ones make sense for me specifically.

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